The AIADMK's staying power is not in question, but it has to regain the winning streak. That will require its leaders and leadership to re-wire themselves, to be able to re-think situations in ways different from what they had been accustomed to, suggests Sathiya Moorthy.
Indications are that the DMK combine will win more seats than the AIADMK and BJP, but is facing a tough fight in about half a dozen from the rest, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy of the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu.
'We are not worried about raids. We have nothing to hide.'
Where do Vijay and his TVK expect to get their votes from? Vijay has a huge fan following among women, but will they automatically become his voters like they had done for MGR's AIADMK, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
Udayanidhi has handed over to the BJP one real issue to draw the line between it and the INDIA alliance, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP often forgets that in Dravidian Tamil Nadu, the voter does not mix religion, which is personal, and politics that is in the public sphere, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
From being the third largest party in the outgoing Lok Sabha with 37 seats, the AIADMK has to now contend with single digit tally, pushed to the third spot behind arch rival DMK and Congress despite fighting the polls as part of a "mega alliance" with parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party.
In what appears to be a major setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party's hopes in South India, the All India Anna Dravida Munetra Kazhagam supremo has entered into an alliance with the Communist Party of India. Vicky Nanjappa reports.
What will a split in the AIADMK mean for Tamil Nadu?
Always interesting, DMK politics is going to get even more absorbing in the days to come, predicts Aditi Phadnis.
'The BJP has become a reasonably larger force in Tamil Nadu in the last two years.'
Launching his "Vetri Kodi Eandhi Tamizhagam Velvom" (Will Win Tamil Nadu Carrying the flag of victory) campaign from Suseendiram in this district, Shah said he was confident that a coalition government of the NDA will come to power in the state after the April 6 assembly polls.
'When you weigh anti-incumbency against the Centre against anti-incumbency against the state, anti-incumbency against the Centre will triumph as this is a parliamentary election.'
Under the deal, the PMK will be supporting the AIADMK in the bypolls expected to 21 assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu, he said.
'The AIADMK gets votes from all sections of the minorities.' 'By aligning with the BJP the AIADMK stands to lose that vote'
In the video clip, Shah can be seen talking to Soundararajan in an animated manner while gesturing with his finger.
Amid chaos, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam general council meeting in Chennai on Thursday rejected all the 23 proposed resolutions and announced that the one and only demand of the GC members is to bring in a system of a single leadership for the party, favouring joint coordinator Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS).
Over the last five days, Modi visited all of south, held roadshows, made an aggressive bid for his party, and took on the rivals with full gusto, especially the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana that was in power for 10 years.
The announcement was made by AIADMK coordinator and deputy chief minister O Panneerselvam and Union Minister and senior BJP leader Piyush Goyal, party election in-charge for Tamil Nadu, who described it as a "mega alliance".
If the idea was to garner AIADMK votes with or without the three faction leaders after the party broke ties with the NDA, it may not work after all, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The parties which gave chief ministers and sent scores of MPs to Parliament, drew a blank this time.
Constituencies that are going to the polls in the first phase, slated for April 19, have just 19 days for campaigning. Contrast that with those going to polls in the 7th phase, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'To them, the day may not be far off when the state BJP starts claiming and propagating that Modi is next only to AIADMK's late boss Jayalalithaa,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Second-line AIADMK leaders and cadres alike say that by starting the talks first with the BJP and committing the party to an alliance without discussing seat-sharing, the leadership might have commenced the coalition discourse at the wrong end. According to them, even 20 seats for the BJP may be too many, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
AIADMK insiders see the very idea of an NDA conclave as a measure of the BJP's current electoral assessment, stemming from relative weakness in 2024 compared to 2014 and 2019. In their reckoning, the BJP now needs allies more than the other way round, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
There is an impression within the Tamil Nadu BJP -- although no one is airing it -- that over-exposure for Narendra Modi over the past months may work against party candidates, as they have triggered a near-continuous social media debate on his achievements and failures, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
There are states that could swing either way and change the results of the 2024 general election.
'Modi is trying avenues to convince people why they should vote for the BJP.'
An interesting multi-cornered contest is on the cards for the urban local body elections in Tamil Nadu scheduled for February 19 with opposition parties, which were with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam till a few days ago, set to take on the ruling DMK banking on their respective party's own strength.
Annamalai has faced criticism for the breakup between the AIADMK and the BJP, but BJP leaders say 'he attracts youth, who needs change'.
'The word 'ally' in a coalition is misleading because it suggests someone who is always for you and with you. This is incorrect.' 'They are always for themselves and sometimes with you,' explains Aakar Patel.
Is the unusually and unbearably scorching Sun and the general laxity, bordering on laziness, among voters, responsible, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
'In Tamil Nadu we head the NDA, the BJP is a junior partner.' 'As long as they know that, all will be well.'
In a state that usually plumbs for a Dravidian major, three candidates have a chance of delivering for the BJP, observes A Ganesh Nadar.
'With passage of time, Kamal did move away from the humdrum of commercial cinema, using it only as a peg to launch a new concept or new technology, as no other actor/film-maker has done in Indian cinema.' N Sathiya Moorthy assesses the career and politics of movie legend Kamal Haasan on his 70th brthday.
'Of equal importance was the AIADMK's precarious assembly membership, what with 11 of its MLAs including deputy chief minister OPS facing court cases for disqualification and by-elections due in another 21. To shore up the party's numbers for anticipated eventuality on the 11-MLAs' front, the AIADMK leadership in general and chief minister EPS in particular, were even more focussed on assembly seats than LS seats, just now,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
A new entrant, whether a popular actor or not, has not been able to sweep the polls, as their fans had hoped for. Given a proven pattern, it should hold true for Vijay as well. Or, something drastically has to happen between now and 2026, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
Already, there is a feeling even within the BJP's AIADMK ally that the BJP is overdoing things on the ED/I-T front, as corruption is not an election issue in the state -- as long as the people are otherwise not excessively unhappy with the governing party, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
As proof of the potential outcome, AIADMK sources pointed to the election of TDP's C M Ramesh to the prestigious PAC, which was enabled by the Opposition voting for him.
Inscrutable have been the ways of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. She is a political strategist and tactician rolled into one that her unpredictable ways have won the day for her - mostly, says N Sathiya Moorthy
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